Panama's first-quarter Darién Gap data, released last week by SENAFRONT, recorded 41,000 crossings — the slowest opening quarter the agency has logged since 2022. [1] The headline number is what travelled. The composition of the flow, less so.
Three shifts run underneath the totals. The first is the rise in Ecuadorian travellers, who now account for roughly one in nine northbound crossings, up from one in twenty last year. The second is the share of women travelling alone, which has more than doubled. The third is the changing first transit point — Necoclí has lost its dominance in favour of Acandí, a coastal town further west. [2]
What the totals miss, advocates argue, is that a slower flow with a different composition is not a quieter flow. Shelter capacity in Bajo Chiquito has not eased. Reports of robbery and sexual assault along the trail remain steady on a per-crossing basis. The reduction in volume is consistent with the slow-walking effect of stricter Mexican enforcement to the north — not, by itself, evidence of improving conditions in the Gap.